Data study · transfer window · as of August 2026
The best-value signings of the 2026 summer window — by the numbers
We scored the summer 2026 window against our player-similarity model: does each signing's statistical profile justify the fee? Smart value, fair price, or a gamble. Updated through deadline day.
How we score it:for each signing we check the player's statistical profile (per-90 metrics, ranked within his exact position, league-strength adjusted) against the fee. “Smart value” = elite-template profile below market; “Gamble” = big fee on upside the numbers can't yet confirm. Profile match, not a crystal ball. Clubs verified; updated through deadline day.
- Konstantinos KoulierakisCB · Wolfsburg → Roma · €15m · 22ySmart value
Our model had him among the elite ball-playing CB profiles (Van Dijk / Saliba / Gvardiol template) months before the deal — €15m for a 22-y/o with two Bundesliga seasons is smart business.
- Kodai SanoCM · NEC Nijmegen → Hoffenheim · €18mSmart value
A ball-carrying controller the model rated highly in the Eredivisie (Kobbie Mainoo mould). Low-teens fee for a Bundesliga-ready profile.
- Kerim AlajbegovićW · Bayer Leverkusen → Juventus · €35m · 18yGamble
Rare explosive 1v1 dribbler (the Doku archetype), but 18 and raw — too early to be in the similarity data. Pure upside bet at €35m.
Method
We take each signed player's per-90 metrics, percentile-rank them within the detailed position, then league-strength adjust before comparing across leagues, and weigh that profile against the reported fee and age. Coverage: 18 leagues, last three seasons. Known limits: it leans on volume metrics, can't see off-ball work, temperament or ceiling, and very young signings may have too few minutes to profile — so a “gamble” tag is about data uncertainty, not a prediction of failure. Clubs verified as of August 2026.
Judge any signing yourself — run the player and compare the profile to the fee.
Find similar players on Doppel →Free to cite with a link to doppel.football. Figures as of August 2026; statistical profile match, not a valuation or transfer prediction.